Page Industries – 90 PE is not expensive – Cartica Capital (Part 3)

Part 1 – Interview

http://www.analyseindia.com/page-industries-90-pe-is-not-expensive-cartica-capital/

Part 2 – Cartica Capital Starts Selling

http://www.analyseindia.com/page-industries-90-pe-not-expensive-cartica-capital-part-2/

Part 3 – Selling Continues

Ever since Cartica Capital mentioned Page Ind is not expensive at 90 PE, they have been consistently selling the stock every quarter

Looking further at the Shareholding pattern of Page Industries we came across that holding of Cartica Capital has come down from 6,84,058 shares to 3,81,489 shares between June 2018 to June 2019. Share price of Page Ind. In June 2018 was 27814 . It made a high of 36335 in Aug 2018. And CMP is around 20420

As per latest announcement on stock exchange, Cartica Captial holds 332,338 shares representing 2.98% of shareholding

Source :

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/B6DDF6F9_05C9_49CC_9DE2_AE20699E042A_180608.pdf

Price Chart

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Historical Shareholding Details of Cartica Capital In Page Industries

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Source : Trendlyne.com

Hotel Industry Trend

Cycles in Indian Hotel Industry

Room Demand vs Supply CAGR

Domestic Tourists vs Foreign Tourist Arrivals

RevPar Growth vs Ebitda Margin

RevPAR Trend –

YoY RevPAR Growth Trend –

Foreign Tourist Arrivals in India –

Domestic Demand Momentum

Aggregate Revenue Growth Trends

Quarterly Revenue Trend

Quarterly OPM and NPM Trend

Ebitda Margins

Supply vs Demand of Rooms Projections

 

Data Source 1  : Edelweiss Research

Data Source 2 : ICRA

Interesting Charts from Brokerage Reports

Broking Houses : Active Customer Base

Source : HDFC Securities

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Broking Houses : Volume Market Share

Source : HDFC Securities

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Cement Prices : M-o-M  Change in (%)

Source : Reliance Securities

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Cements : Segments Driving Demand

Source : Trust Group

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Cement : Capacity Chart

Soure : Trust Group

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Residential Property : Prices of Key Cities

Source : Kotak Institutional Equities

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Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines–Retail Investors Deja Vu !!

An older article on my Blog. Why do Traders Go Bust and Investors Get Lost !!

The only way one can explain Retail Investor increasing in Kingfisher Airlines is – Hope for Good Things to happen !!

KINGFISHER AIRLINES  SHAREHOLDERS 
Retail Shareholders (2008-2018)  No. of Shareholders   No. of Shares 
March 31, 2008 (1L) 50,098 73,52,296
March 31, 2009 (1L) 64,730 1,26,90,145
March 31, 2010 (1L) 81,311 2,02,79,212
March 31, 2011 (1L) 95,421 2,66,73,862
March 31, 2012 (1L) 1,35,547 5,51,99,258
March 31, 2013 (1L) 2,30,069 16,64,78,828
March 31, 2014 (1L) 2,33,242 19,73,99,714
September 30, 2014 (1L) 2,33,393 21,16,70,473

· Shareholders holding upto 1 lakh paid up capital went up from 50k in 2008 to 2.3 lakhs in Sept 2014.

· In March 2012 there were 1.35 lakh shareholders and by September 2014 there were 2.3 lakh.

· The terrible part number of shares from 2012 to 2014 went up from 5.5 crores to 21 crores !!

Deja Vu – Jet Airways

5-7 years later we have another airlines – Jet Airways

The behaviour just does not change.

Jet Airways   SHAREHOLDERS 
Retail Shareholders (2008-2018)  No. of Shareholders   No. of Shares 
Mar 31 , 2018  89,686 48,69,633
Jun 30 , 2018  1,11,969 85,16,697
Sept 30, 2018 1,25,844 1,11,52,359
Dec 31, 2018  1,29,246 1,13,19,064
March 31 , 2019 1,37,524 1,29,72,794

From 4.29% of equity to 11.42% of Equity now with Retail Shareholders!! A total of 1,37,524.  ( less than 2 lakh share capital.)

The sad part is we had 2.3 lakh retail shareholders in Kingfisher but a company like Kotak Mahindra Bank has 2.23 lakh retail shareholders !!

Doing a quick check we see a Pidilite , Bata , Voltas and many known companies have lesser retail shareholders ( 2 lakh capital ) compared to a 1,37,524 of Jet Airways. Many smaller companies with longer track records have barely 5k-50k retail shareholders.

Will this ever change ?

Mutual Fund Trends March 2019

The value of assets held by individual investors in mutual funds increased from Rs.11.66 lakh cr in March 2018 to Rs.13.54 lakh cr in March 2019, an absolute increase of 16.08%.

 

B30 vs T30

In March 2019, 23% of assets held by individual investors is from the B30 locations. 6% of institutional assets come from B30 locations. Institutional assets are concentrated in T30 locations, accounting for 94% of the total.

Individuals B30

The proportion of direct investments in equity, to the total assets held by individual investors, was about 8% in March 2019.

Only 12% of the Individual Investor money in Equity Mutual Fund comes through the direct route out of that 10% comes through the direct route in T30 cities.

Geographical Spreads

Geography wise AUM

Interesting to see – Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar, Tripura, Sikkim, Mizoram and other smaller states slowly getting penetrated but are still miniscule ranging from 300-1200 crores.

SIP Data

SIP Data

Indian Mutual Funds have currently about 2.62 crore (26.2 million) SIP accounts through which investors regularly invest in Indian Mutual Fund schemes.

AMFI data shows that the MF industry had added about 9.13 lacs SIP accounts each month on an average during the FY 2018-19, with an average SIP size of about ₹3,070 per SIP account.

Interesting Charts from Brokerage Reports

How HSAW, DI and PVC Pipes are used in Water Transportation

Source : Narnolia

Mode of Logistics Transportation in India

Source : Dalal and Broacha

Market Share of Lubricants Players

Source : Yes Securities

Home Textiles – Companies presence across Value Chain

Source : JM Financial

Welspun, Trident and GHCL are fully integrated players, Indo Count
and Himatsingka are partially integrated

Airline Fleet Strength

Source : Stewart and Mackertich

Per capita cement consumption across world

Source : SKP Research