Interesting Charts from Brokerage Reports

Broking Houses : Active Customer Base

Source : HDFC Securities

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Broking Houses : Volume Market Share

Source : HDFC Securities

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Cement Prices : M-o-M  Change in (%)

Source : Reliance Securities

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Cements : Segments Driving Demand

Source : Trust Group

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Cement : Capacity Chart

Soure : Trust Group

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Residential Property : Prices of Key Cities

Source : Kotak Institutional Equities

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Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines–Retail Investors Deja Vu !!

An older article on my Blog. Why do Traders Go Bust and Investors Get Lost !!

The only way one can explain Retail Investor increasing in Kingfisher Airlines is – Hope for Good Things to happen !!

KINGFISHER AIRLINES  SHAREHOLDERS 
Retail Shareholders (2008-2018)  No. of Shareholders   No. of Shares 
March 31, 2008 (1L) 50,098 73,52,296
March 31, 2009 (1L) 64,730 1,26,90,145
March 31, 2010 (1L) 81,311 2,02,79,212
March 31, 2011 (1L) 95,421 2,66,73,862
March 31, 2012 (1L) 1,35,547 5,51,99,258
March 31, 2013 (1L) 2,30,069 16,64,78,828
March 31, 2014 (1L) 2,33,242 19,73,99,714
September 30, 2014 (1L) 2,33,393 21,16,70,473

· Shareholders holding upto 1 lakh paid up capital went up from 50k in 2008 to 2.3 lakhs in Sept 2014.

· In March 2012 there were 1.35 lakh shareholders and by September 2014 there were 2.3 lakh.

· The terrible part number of shares from 2012 to 2014 went up from 5.5 crores to 21 crores !!

Deja Vu – Jet Airways

5-7 years later we have another airlines – Jet Airways

The behaviour just does not change.

Jet Airways   SHAREHOLDERS 
Retail Shareholders (2008-2018)  No. of Shareholders   No. of Shares 
Mar 31 , 2018  89,686 48,69,633
Jun 30 , 2018  1,11,969 85,16,697
Sept 30, 2018 1,25,844 1,11,52,359
Dec 31, 2018  1,29,246 1,13,19,064
March 31 , 2019 1,37,524 1,29,72,794

From 4.29% of equity to 11.42% of Equity now with Retail Shareholders!! A total of 1,37,524.  ( less than 2 lakh share capital.)

The sad part is we had 2.3 lakh retail shareholders in Kingfisher but a company like Kotak Mahindra Bank has 2.23 lakh retail shareholders !!

Doing a quick check we see a Pidilite , Bata , Voltas and many known companies have lesser retail shareholders ( 2 lakh capital ) compared to a 1,37,524 of Jet Airways. Many smaller companies with longer track records have barely 5k-50k retail shareholders.

Will this ever change ?

Mutual Fund Trends March 2019

The value of assets held by individual investors in mutual funds increased from Rs.11.66 lakh cr in March 2018 to Rs.13.54 lakh cr in March 2019, an absolute increase of 16.08%.

 

B30 vs T30

In March 2019, 23% of assets held by individual investors is from the B30 locations. 6% of institutional assets come from B30 locations. Institutional assets are concentrated in T30 locations, accounting for 94% of the total.

Individuals B30

The proportion of direct investments in equity, to the total assets held by individual investors, was about 8% in March 2019.

Only 12% of the Individual Investor money in Equity Mutual Fund comes through the direct route out of that 10% comes through the direct route in T30 cities.

Geographical Spreads

Geography wise AUM

Interesting to see – Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar, Tripura, Sikkim, Mizoram and other smaller states slowly getting penetrated but are still miniscule ranging from 300-1200 crores.

SIP Data

SIP Data

Indian Mutual Funds have currently about 2.62 crore (26.2 million) SIP accounts through which investors regularly invest in Indian Mutual Fund schemes.

AMFI data shows that the MF industry had added about 9.13 lacs SIP accounts each month on an average during the FY 2018-19, with an average SIP size of about ₹3,070 per SIP account.

Interesting Charts from Brokerage Reports

How HSAW, DI and PVC Pipes are used in Water Transportation

Source : Narnolia

Mode of Logistics Transportation in India

Source : Dalal and Broacha

Market Share of Lubricants Players

Source : Yes Securities

Home Textiles – Companies presence across Value Chain

Source : JM Financial

Welspun, Trident and GHCL are fully integrated players, Indo Count
and Himatsingka are partially integrated

Airline Fleet Strength

Source : Stewart and Mackertich

Per capita cement consumption across world

Source : SKP Research

Interesting Reads 01-04-2019

Companies with  Market cap of over 1 trillion Rs has reached 30 at present

Source : Business Standard

 

Price to Book Valuation of Nifty and Nifty Bank index – Discount is reducing

Source : Business Standard

 

Large cap funds outperformed Mid and Small cap fund in last one year. However over a 5 year period, Small and Midcap funds have outperformed Large cap funds

Source : Business Standard

 

Indian Economy Snapshot (Last 5 years)

Source : Business Standard

 

Aviation traffic growth Feb 2019 –  Lowest in 57 months

Source : Financial Express

 

Energy Demand Growth in 5 years  vs Net Income of Discoms.

Source : Business Standard

 

Metal companies operating profit contribution from each commodities

Source : Hindu Business Line

Interesting Charts from Brokerage Reports

Expectation of strong earnings recovery in midcaps

(Source : Elara Securities)

 

FII and DII proportion to Free Float

(Source : Motilal Oswal)

 

% of BSE 200 stocks trading above 200 DMA

(Source : Goldman Sachs)

 

India’s allocation in EM and AEJ Mutual Funds

(Source : Goldman Sachs)

 

Gap between 200 DMA and 50 DMA | Realized inter day volatility

(Source : Morgan Stanley)

 

Difference of Nifty 50 and Midcap 100 rolling returns (%)

(Source : Motilal Oswal)

 

There has been no two consecutive years of negative returns in midcaps

(Source : Elara Securities)

 

In past 5 out of 6 elections, nifty has averaged 13% returns in 3 months before election results

(Source : Goldman Sachs)

 

Nifty and Nifty midcap 100 – Ownership structure

(Source : Motilal Oswal)

 

Nifty Midcap 100 Total market cap at five year low

(Source : Motilal Oswal)

Interesting Charts from Brokerage Reports

 

Valuation of small caps after steep correction

(Source : B&K Securities)

What led to the Nifty Rally

(Source : Yes Securities)

Breakeven Analysis between diesel and petrol cars have come down significantly

(Source : Kotak Institutional Equities)

 

DRAWDOWNS

(Source : Morgan Stanley Research)

Midcap Drawdown since 2005  

Smallcap Drawdown since 2005

Sensex Drawdown since 2005

Sensex Drawdown since 2009

 

FLOWS 

(Source : Morgan Stanley Research)

FPI vs Domestic MF

 

FUNDAMENTALS

(Source : Morgan Stanley Research)

Corporate Profit to GDP : India vs US

Corporate Profit to GDP

Large Companies share in Total Profits – At highest levels

Breadth of Corporate Performance – Revenue and Net Profit Growth

Broad Market Revenue Growth

YoY Revenue and Profit Growth

Trend in RoE and Asset Turnover

Bank Credit Growth

 

MARKET BREADTH

(Source : Morgan Stanley Research)

Market Breadth – % of stocks above 200 DMA (Daily)

Market Breadth – % of stocks above 200 DMA (Weekly)

 

VALUATIONS

(Source : Morgan Stanley Research)

Cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE)

MSCI India P/E relative to MSCI US

Market cap to GDP Ratio

 

VOLATILITY

(Source : Morgan Stanley Research)

Inter day volatility at historical lows