Management Comments – Wipro, M&M Financial Services, SKF India

Wipro on where the next leg of growth is coming from?
  • The management sees automation as a key lever to drive margins going forward.
  • It sees good momentum in its business led by steady performance in banking and financial services and consumer businesses Within BFSI, Wipro is seeing good growth in cloud migration and enterprise renovation segments on the Banking side and automation & operations transformation on the capital markets side
  • The management sees revival in the energy and utility business.
  • It has also seen an uptick in communication business driven by core enterprise spend as well as the new edge areas like 5G.
  • Health segment continues to see challenges, driven by the uncertainty around the ACA which continues to persist
Source : Q2FY19 Concall
M&M Financial Services on geographical performance
  • Among the states, the state of Maharashtra is showing slower performance, while other states of North East, UP and Bihar etc are aggressive on growth front and Kerala is bouncing back after floods
  • Large part of NPAs of rural housing finance subsidiary are from Maharashtra state, the company expects the NPAs of rural housing finance subsidiary to decline in Maharashtra in H2FY2019

Source : Q2FY19 Concall

SKF India on Revenue mix, Segmental breakup, Capex and Wind energy
  • Revenue mix : Of the total sales, automotive accounts for around 43%, industrials around 50% and exports which are largely towards auto account for the rest 7%.
  • Within Automotive, aftermarket would be 13% and 87% would be OE. Within industrials, the aftermarket and OE are 50% each. Within industrials,  Strong traction seen from passenger wagon side.
  • Capex :  Company will incur a capex of upwards of Rs 150 crore as compared to around Rs 50 crore
  • Wind : While the prices of bearings for wind energy has stabilized but still no significant demand seen towards wind energy. However investments picking up in turbine side manufacturing and demand will eventually pick up

Source : Q2FY19 Concall

 

 

Management Comments – ICICI Lombard General Insurance, Ultratech Cement, Inox Leisure, JSW Energy

ICICI Lomabard General Insurance

On retail side of business, SME and Retail health indemnity continued to grow faster and remain areas of focus

Company continues to remain cautious in case of government business segment in view of aggressive pricing strategies adopted by some market players

The general insurance industry witnessed significant disruption in the state of Kerala which was triggered by excessive floods. Overall economic losses incurred by state is estimated to be 250 Billion rupees. The gross incurred losses for industry are estimated to be 20 billion rupees.

The regulator has made it mandatory for all new private cars and two wheelers for long term third party cover. This is positive development as it will address the problem of non renewal of motor insurance in case of older vehicles. Insurers have been permitted to price the policies in line with their current approach for pricing.

Source : Q2FY19 Concall

 

Ultratech Cement

Sector update : Demand continues to remain healthy and grew 10 to 11%. Capacity utilisationin Q2 was 65% versus 61%. Capacity addition is expected yo be 15 to 17 mtpa for next 3 years compared with incremental demand of 25 to 27 MTPA.

Cost structure : logistics cost account for 31%, energy cost account for 30%, raw material cost accounts of 14%

Capacity utilization : 80-85% in east; 75-77% in north; 55-60% in central; 65-70% in west; 65-70% in south.

Petcoke prices have declined to 108$ per tonne vs 114$ per tonne. Road freight cost can decline 7% due to revision in the axle load limit and road freight accounts for close to 75% of sales. There will be some cost increase due to higher diesel prices

Source : Q2FY19 Concall

 

Inox Leisure

We are looking for aggressive growth — both organic and inorganic — and are always open for acquisitions. Inox is not in talks with Cinepolis, or any other player, but if owners of any large cinema chains decide to sell, Inox will evaluate.

Our new properties in places like Gwalior, Jaipur, Hyderabad, Delhi NCR, Mumbai and Bengaluru are getting great response from cinema goers. While we have added the highest number of new screens this year, I am seeing new properties coming up faster hereon. This year, we will end up adding 80 screens, while my target for next fiscal is 100

Inox operates 542 screens across 133 multiplexes in 67 cities and the company has 815 more screens in the pipeline.

Source : https://bit.ly/2DJQ2hG

 

JSW Energy

Power sector will be profitable again in two years as no fresh capacity is being added to cater to the rising demand

Power demand grew 6.1% last year and during second quarter this year it was close to 7%. I feel the trend now will be 6.5%- 7.5%. Lots of investments were committed in the sector earlier due to which 123 GW of capacity came up as against 88 GW. That excess capacity of close to 35 GW and lower demand created a problem in the power sector. As no new investments are taking place, a balance will be created in 2-3 years. You will see fresh investments in four years and we feel a lot of consolidation is going to happen

As and when assets go to the NCLT and even outside, we will be interested. We are looking at assets based on domestic coal and the logistics cost is minimum and where we can do projects at low cost so that cost of power is low.

The problems of power purchase agreement (PPA) and coal can be resolved over time and these delays can be factored in with proper capital structure

Source : https://bit.ly/2r6LbQe

Management Interviews – IEX, Sobha Developers, Bata India, Sandhar Technologies, V-Mart

IEX

  • Q2 volume growth driven by increased demand in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar, WB, Telangana, J&K
  • Reason in increase of pricing was due to hydro and wind generation going down in September and shortage of coal
  • Our transaction fees is not dependant on price of power but on volumes transacted
  • Load shedding is the last thing that distributors engage in, hence demand for power will continue
  • Any variation of fees in future shall be first approved by a regulatory approval, earlier exchanges were free to vary.

Link : https://youtu.be/q7RLg1wgg2g

Sobha Developers

  • Revenue can be recognized only on completion basis as per New AS
  • There are few private sector NBFC where we have seen they have not disbursed loans and they have assured that max delay is for 2-3 weeks
  • Aiming topline of 1200 crs in this FY. Order book of 2300 cr on hand for contract manufacturing, will grow this business at double digit
  • 1st time buyers have been buying early in their age
  • 2018 will be better than 2017
  • Kerela is a great market for us, sentiment will revive when NRI returns in december season
  • Gurgaon and NCR is genuinely growth oriented market in North
  • Bangalore we have good land bank

Link : https://youtu.be/wmnWoRioGyg

Bata India

  • SSGR is 9%+ and premium segment is 30%+
  • Turnover growth was 15% where 16% growth in retail and 4% in non retail
  • Portion of premium products will go to 35% from 30% at present
  • Passing entire benefit of GST to customers
  • Margins have improved by 1%
  • All new launches will be mix of premium and retail

Link : https://youtu.be/JqT3gLPC4gM

Sandhar Technologies

  • Margins pressure is due to commodity prices and increase in power and fuel cost
  • Our new units are operating at negative operating leverage and as time passes will see much better margins from new units
  • Industry segment grew at 13%, we grew at 20%
  • PV segment grew at 5.1%, we grew at 7.9%
  • CV segment grew at 37%, we grew at 35%
  • Off highway grew ta 22%, we grew at 75%
  • Diversification program has paid off well for us
  • Just 3% of overall revenue is exports
  • 50% of our foreign currency exposure is always hedged

Link : https://youtu.be/Q57YeC6j64g

V-Mart

  • Festival demand has shifted from Q2 to Q3 which is the reason of SSGR coming down
  • Expenses are growing and SSGR is flattish resulting in Ebitda loss in quarter
  • Witnessing good festival season – will meet our expected nos. by year end
  • Our stores are in Tier2 Tier3 cities and people buy only when they need and when there is festival. So during festival they come out and buy large quantities. Seeing demand rise in winter wear products from North India. Kids wear is growing more than other items
  • 19 new store opening in H1, focussing on north and east states
  • We approach clustered approach by opening new store which is 100-150 kms from our other stores

 

 

 

 

Management Interviews – Welspun India, Welspun Corp, Bajaj Electricals, Castrol India, Escorts, BEL

Welspun India

  • After a long time entered in to double digit growth trajectory
  • SPACES grown 20% in Q2
  • Launched W brand towels in domestic market
  • Christy sales via e commerce platform have gone up by 140%
  • Expecting 1800 crs revenue from Welspun flooring in 2-3 years time (2x of capex)
  • Double digit growth guidance for revenue and ebitda margin next year will improve substantially as current year hedges expire
  • Capex will be 900 crs – 700 crs for flooring. No new spending on spinning and weaving.

Link : https://youtu.be/mSHvcIzKTDk

 

Welspun Corp

  • 7% growth on YoY basis and 9% growth on QoQ basis
  • Ebitda is 239 crs at sales of 269 MT
  • Order book of 1.7 mn tonnes valued at 2 bn $ (highest ever in history of co.)
  • 850k tonnes from Saudi, 500k tonnes from US and 300k tonnes from India
  • Growth mostly coming from US mkt
  • Made a provision of 28 crs rs for ILFS and other bonds.

Link : https://youtu.be/zoF1df0buTE

 

Bajaj Electricals

  • Sales at 1598 crs vs 935 crs YoY , 71% growth
  • PAT gone up to 34 crs from 18 crs, 79.6% growth
  • Consumer product business growing by 25%
  • EPC is growing by 127% because of orders from UP projects
  • Consumer products margins are less as RM prices have gone up and Co. has not taken increase in prices, it will be taken in 3rd qtr
  • EPC margins – UP order margins are on lower side than other EPC projects
  • Total order book for EPC is 7300 crs
  • EPC topline by year end will be 4000 crs, 60% growth
  • Consumer products topline will be around 3000 crs
  • CP margins we expect to improve by 100 bps, EPC margins will be in same range

Link : https://youtu.be/G4yE78X8p_4

 

Castrol India

  • Current quarter volumes increased 4%
  • T/O increased 8% after putting in 3 prices increases in market
  • Profitability was maintained despite 115crs increase in cost of goods
  • ReLaunched some products with differentiated technology
  • We have recovered 80% of cost of goods increase in 9 months
  • No price hikes in this quarter unless huge change
  • Reached 150k retail outlets and signed alliance with M&M
  • Saw uptick in industrial volumes in Q3, 4% growth
  • Synthetic products is a small part of turnover % in India as market is still evolving
  • Lubricant demand depends on how much the vehicle moves and how many vehices are there in system and not so much on vehicles sales. Other thing that impacts is technology change. Replacement of lubricants are getting longer which means vehicles require lesser lubricants but they’ll require other synthetic products in which castrol is well positioned
  • Long term volume growth of 5-6%

Link : https://youtu.be/tuW3Dq-Nabw

 

Escorts

  • Diwali and Navratri are generally strong periods
  • Already taken price increase two times, will be looking again for 1% increase after festive season is over
  • In construction business, H1 is lower and H2 is better, guidance of 13% growth on full year basis
  • Railways – Order book – 400 crs+ which will be executed within next 12-13 months – Guidance of 25-30% growth on full year basis
  • Lowered margins in railways compared to previous quarters as we are entering new product segment. On a full year basis margins will be better by 200-300 bps
  • In tractors we are able to pass the cost increases to customers but in construction we are facing difficulties
  • Price realisations were better due to price hike taken
  • Overall macro for rural is looking positive for next 2-3 quarters

Link : https://youtu.be/eOr_jKPHk3I

 

BEL

  • Revenue growth of 20% for half year
  • PAT depends on mix of services provided during particular period
  • Ebitda guidance for full year around 17-18%
  • Order book of company at all time high touching 50,000 crs
  • Executable order per year will allow us to grow at 12% CAGR
  • Will complete deliveries at 11200 crs in this year
  • Expect order flow of 10000-13000 crs in FY 20

Link : https://youtu.be/xufvb85MJys

Interesting Reads – 05-11-2018

Stocks that investment gurus would buy for Diwali 2018 (ET)

In this article, ET has explained and filtered stocks based on methods used by 4 investment gurus – James O’ Shaughnessy, Warren Buffett, Joel Greenblatt, Joseph Piotroski

https://bit.ly/2DncDS6

 

Can Ethanol Change Business Dynamics For Sugar Industry? (BQ)

A good read on changing dynamics for sugar industry.

https://bit.ly/2OpEoKH

 

The Low Stress Way to Research Stocks (Safal Niveshak)

Jatin Khemani talks about his equity research process and how he tries to balance the stress part of the equation that it involves

https://bit.ly/2zoZNhq

 

A Brief Overview Of Global & Indian Coffee Sector (Alpha Invesco)

https://bit.ly/2Dkccbb

 

Understanding The Indian Tyre Industry, Key Players & The Road Ahead (Alpha Invesco)

https://bit.ly/2RCMgKU

 

Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator: The Volkswagen Chronicles (Albert Bridge Capital)

Mother of all short squeezes, Volkswagen briefly became the world’s biggest company by market value, as short sellers caught betting on a price drop with borrowed stock scrambled to find shares after a buying spree by Porsche

https://bit.ly/2SNlmRJ

Management Interviews – Globus Spirits, Prataap Snacks, Berger Paints, Ceat

Globus Spirits

  • Investing 25-30 crs into premium IMFL business every year. Sales is small now but it’s a high growth business
  • Economy brand business growing at about 8-10% every year
  • Rajasthan is a biggest state, followed by Haryana and then West Bengal
  • Bihar Distillary – Is for ethanol policy – Large part of capacity will go to OMCs – Will start in next 2 months – Will add about 100 crs of revenue to our business on annual basis – Margins will be north of 20%
  • Have taken price increase and that lead to increase in margins
  • Margin increase due to ethanol is not yet played out
  • 12% margins can be safely assumed this year and will increase once ethanol is played out
  • Rajasthan is over 30% of our revenues and most profitable state, don’t see much change in buiness due to elections
  • There will be some capex in Bihar and Haryana for ethanol

 

Link :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1032528096128262144

 

Prataap Snacks

  • Will not take debt for acquisition of Avadh snacks, already have cash on books of about 140 crs and cash reqd is 145 crs
  • Avadh snacks revenue is 140 crs; Ebitda margins are 7.5-8.5%; No.4 in Gujarat Category
  • They have small debt of 2-3 crs Rs
  • Gujarat is 4-5% of India’s population – they consume around 12-14% of Indian snacks
  • Revenues of Prataap snacks from Gujarat is just 12-25 crs in a year
  • Will take our holding from 80% to 100% in next 4-5 years; until then Avadh promoters will run the business for us
  • We have a growth target of 18-20% and margins of 7.5%
  • Will target revenues of 1250 crs this year

 

Link :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1032522272576159745

 

Berger Paints

  • RM Prices – Moderation in some and some gone up
  • Re devaluation will impact us as 25-30% of RM is imported
  • We will take a price increase of 1-1.5% in September
  • Ebitda margins will be static or some drop if we are unable to take price increase
  • Saboo coating acquisition – Speciality products – Glass coating, Plastic coating – Earlier it was a Noth Indian company – We are planning it to take to different geographies
  • Volume growth was at 17% in Q1 due to base effect; In Q2 it might not be 17% but can expect a good volume growth
  • Market share – 19% in decorative business
  • Capacity utilization – 70-72% in normal months and 90-92% in seasonal months
  • Going to set up a plant near Lucknow in UP which will come up in 2020

 

Link :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1032517987985580032

 

Ceat

  • Our physical rubber inventory will be around 3-4 weeks
  • We have a mix of rubber sourcing i.e. imports and local
  • We are facing some supply issues from Kerela in last 2-3 weeks leading to production stoppage
  • Local rubber prices have moved up from 125/kg to 133/kg (Kerela). As far as international prices are concerned – they are rangebound around 1450 $
  • Availability of carbon black have improved in last 2 months.
  • Re depreciation has also impacted delivery costs in terms of imports
  • 2 Wheller demand is good in last 2-3 months; also seen growth in both OEM and Replacement market
  • We are working for additional capacity addition based on our long term capex plan
  • Likely to incur 1000 cr capex in Halol for TBR – Will be commissione din Q3 of this FY
  • Setting up greenfield plant in Southern india for Passenger Vehicles – Est capex is 2000 crs
  • Capex spend will be in phases ; funded through internal accruals (1/3rd) and debt (2/3rd) – Debt to Equity at end of FY19 could be 0.7-0.8

 

Link :

https://youtu.be/E60gjyHdW58

 

 

 

 

Page Industries – 90 PE is not expensive – Cartica Capital (Part 2)

In our last post we mentioned how Cartica Capital finds Page Ind. is reasonably valued at 90 PE

The interview was aired on 28th June 2018

Looking at the Shareholding pattern of Page Industries we came across that holding of Cartica Capital has come down from 8,62,721 shares to 6,84,058 shares  between March to June 2018. Price range of Page Ind. during same time was 21800 to 27800

Shareholding of Cartica in Page Ind. over last 3 years

Quarter No. of shares
June 2018 6,84,058
March 2018 8,62,721
September 2016 8,64,565
June 2016 8,69,465
September 2015 8,63,650

Price Chart of Page Ind

Management Interviews – NIIT Technologies, Mastek Ltd., Ashok Leyland, M&M, Bajaj Auto, Sterlite Technologies

NIIT Technologies

  • Annual Salary hikes comes in Q1 leading to depressed margins
  • Order intake for this quarter is $151 mn vs $110 mn YoY with US as lion’s share
  • US is now 50% of revenues vs 48%
  • Within BFSI, amount of spends coming from Capital markets subsegment to meet regulatory impediments are large

Link

https://twitter.com/BloombergQuint/status/1019554623768522752

 

Mastek Ltd

  • As a result of our investments in last 18-24 months, we are seeing a good momentum in topline
  • Financial performance is a lag indicator, our pipeline have grown 25% QoQ, order book remains robust, we are signing multi year deals
  • More IT services will be needed to establish departments set out due to Brexit
  • Sequentially US grew 4.2% and 10% YoY. Investments in digital commerce space (Retail to Ecommerce) is where we are helping our customers
  • We have been in UK for 22 years and US for a year and a half
  • Margins trend will continue to have upward bias as we keep on investing and growin the business

Link

https://twitter.com/BloombergQuint/status/1019555890603556865

 

Ashok Leyland

  • Taken price hike of 1.5-2% in April which helped us to neutralize increase in RM prices
  • In chase of volumes we are not going to do heavy discounting. We don’t push credit into pipe and try to take offtake higher
  • Net cash on books is 1200 crs
  • Its 12-13th sequential quarter of double digit ebitda margins
  • Hopefully in 2nd half of this year we can see softening of steel prices
  • Market share for current quarter is 30.2% for MHCV segment (fallen by 4.5%)
  • Gained market share in LCV segment from 15 to 16% -> 34% growth in volumes
  • We are clearly walking away from negative margins sales and let some of business go. For us it not a market share game, our plan is to grow profitably
  • 8-10% growth at the end of the year is very much possible
  • Extra load in existing vehicles brings safety concerns as it will be overloaded; can be brought prospectively in new vehicles
  • Last quarter we saw heavy discounting by other players to play volume game

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1019483592085270530

 

M&M

  • Govt notifications on extra load cannot be applied retrospectively as we have designed vehicles as per earlier rules
  • Will have to design new truck for new axle load
  • It will take minimum of a year to design and make trucks to be able to leverage full axle capacity that govt has now approved

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1019483282470158336

 

Bajaj Auto

  • Exports grown by 31% in totality
  • Domestic motorcycle grown by 40%
  • CV business grown by 80%
  • All in all grown by 36% in number terms
  • Had a record sales in international three wheelers, on track to achieve 2 million on export side
  • CV business – runrate of 100,000 coming per quarter, annual target of 375,000
  • Domestic motorcycle – Industry growth at 19%, we have grown at 34%
  • Margins at 18.4% vs 20% tradionally
  • CV and Exports have seen same margins
  • Domestic motorcycle is growing more in terms of topline so margins have come off on overall business
  • Will go in more aggressive in terms of pricing and market share for M1 segment (entry level) which forms 15% of turnover
  • Sports segment, 3 wheeler, Spare parts will continue with the same margins

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1020242425636245504

 

Sterlite Tech

  • Sitting at all time high order book from 3100 cr to 6034 cr as on June 2018
  • As of the visibility today we are predicting $ 100 mn profit mark can be achieved by march 2019
  • Margins significantly improved from FY 16 to FY 17
  • One of our facilities which was operated at 45% utilization is now operated at 95% utilization
  • Overall operating efficiency is improving
  • 24-25% margins is our medium term outlook (no expansion)
  • Metallurgica acquisition will help in Europe as a startegic hub and also brings in new set of customers. Will be EPS accretive immediately
  • Out of 6000 cr order book, 5000 cr is coming from products which is largely from european markets. Rest 1000 cr is system and software development

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1020164688032612352

Management Interviews – MIRC Electronics, SH Kelkar, Dish TV, Balaji Telefilms, Bajaj Electricals

MIRC Electronics

  • Sold 150,000 units grossing 90 crs of washing machines last year , expecting it to go upto 250,000 units this year grossing 160 crs

 

  • Contribution margin in washing machines will go up from 27% to 31%

 

  • Capacity utilization at 50% now

 

  • Bennett coleman holds 7% stake in company which in effect can do 60 crs worth of advertising, out of which 30 crs is unutilized at this moment

 

  • By next March warrants will kick in, so total infusion will be 130 crs (90 crs + 40 crs warrants), Our borrowing was 150 crs.

 

  • Non core assets can realize 120-130 crs

 

Link : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1016922438284673024

 

SH Kelkar

  • Long term initiatives such as Investment in R&D , Sales expansion, Reducing operating expenses are all in track

 

  • Pressure on gross margins as raw material supply scenario which has panned out in Indian chemical suppliers

 

  • Had a 6% dip in gross margins at 39% vs 44% (Average margins). Will slowly recover in 2nd half of Financial year

 

  • On last years base we can grow Revenues at excess of 15%

 

  • We have higher market share in premium products then in lower range products

 

Link : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1016946164149596160

 

Dish TV

  • Added 3 lakh subscribers in this quarter

 

  • Revenue growth guidance – 7 to 8 % for full year

 

  • HD has contributed 40% of new subsscribers this quarter. Out of total subscribers base 17% are consuming HD content

 

  • Ebitda margins has moved up from 30.5% to 33.6% QoQ. Guidance 34-36% this year

 

  • Synergies from personal cost, back end, admin, content has just started to come in

 

  • One time cost have come in Finance cost due to upfront fees paid on re nogotiation of D2H debt at much attractive interest rate. Finance cost will be 25-30 crs lower from what you see now

 

  • Our market share is more than 40%, focus is to add share on net basis and increase ARPU

 

  • With incoming of Tariff order, it will help restore level playing field between cable and DTH

 

Link : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1016929570631532544

 

Balaji Telefilms

  • We have doubled the number of subscribers in last 3 months from 1.2 million to 3.5 million (Excl. JIO)

 

  • We aim to breakeven and have library of 70-75 shows by end of 3 years

 

  • We have carved out exclusive digital rights for some TV shows

 

  • Telcos giving data are very cheap rates which is boosting consumption

 

  • Content comes at cost of 30L-50L for ½ Hour

 

  • Every 6-7Th show will be a show in regional content

 

  • Target of reaching 8 million subscribers by 2020-2021

 

  • ARPU right now is 15 Rs and aim is to get it to 20 Rs, will do that by pushing it to international audience at 1$ i.e. 65-70 Rs

 

Link : https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1016912708896092162?s=08

 

Bajaj Electricals

  • Last 2 years have taken a lot of hits to get our distribution in place, now expecting a high two digit growth

 

  • June July August will have a low base effect so 15% – 20% growth would be normal given good demand this year

 

  • Have good orders in EPC business from UP Power Distribution which will tilt % contribution. However we want to maintain it at 50-50 in the long run as EPC gives visibility but is risky business. Core business is consumer product business

 

  • We placed bid for 16 projects of low cost housing expecting to get 3-4, but we got it for all 16 projects i.e. order of 5000 crs. Which we do not have capacity for. Luckily in survey we found many houses do not exist, so will have to do orders worth 3000-3500 cr by March 2020

 

  • Total order book is higher than 8000 crs

 

Link : https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1016903607143133190?s=08

 

 

Cement Industry Highlights from Annual Reports 2018

Companies covered –

Century textiles, J K Cement, Birla Corp, Ultratech Cement, Sanghi Industries, Star Cement

Century textiles

  • The demand for cement may continue to be driven further by the pick-up in the infrastructure projects viz. bridges, roads, ports, metro rails and low budget housing segment, bringing opportunities for growth in this sector.

 

  • The cement sector may witness incremental demand outpacing incremental supply in the next three fiscals. However, the demand-supply gap will remain, considering the excess installed capacities.

 

  • First quarter of FY 2017-18 witnessed a drop of 3.30% in cement production due to shortage of sand, slowdown in real estate activity, drought (in a few States) and transitional issues related to the implementation of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act (RERA)

 

  • Cement demand in the second quarter of FY 2017-18 was adversely impacted by the implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST), continued sand shortage, intermittent and irregular rainfall in different areas resulting in a meagre growth of 0.62%.

 

  • Third quarter (Oct to Dec) of FY 2017-18 cement production witnessed a growth of 11.38% year-onyear, while growth during the fourth quarter (Jan to March) would be about 16%, mainly due to low base in FY 2016-17 on account of the impact of demonetisation.

 

  • Outlook for overall cement demand in FY 2018-19 appears to be positive with demand expected to grow at 6-7% p.a. Low utilization levels coupled with increasing power & fuel costs will continue to pose challenges.

 

  • The per capita consumption of cement in India is very low at around 225 kg as compared to the world average of about 540 kg and 800 kg in developed countries.

 

  • Housing sector is the biggest demand driver of cement, accounting for about 65 per cent of the total consumption in India

 

  • Headwinds for Cement industry are expected to continue with companies unable to fully pass on the cost escalations to consumers

 

J K Cement

  • Aiming to almost double our grey cement production capacity to 18 MnTPA in the next four-five years. The increased capacity will enable us to reinforce our prominence in the northern and western markets that promise attractive growth

 

  • There is increasing presence of small and mid-sized cement players diminishing market concentration

 

  • Growing adoption of cement instead of bitumen in construction of roads

 

  • As per IBEF Report, June 2018 India has a cement production capacity of ~455 MT, of which almost 98% is dominated by the private sector. The top 20 companies account for ~70% of the total production

 

  • Grey cement registered a growth of 16% in production volumes over the last year. North and South region recorded a rise to the tune of 17% and 14%, respectively.

 

  • White cement registered a growth of 2% y-o-y in production volumes, whereas the value-added product, wall putty showed a growth of 14% on y-o-y basis

 

  • India’s cement production capacity is expected to reach 550 million tonnes by 2025. Growth in the cement sector in 2018-19 is likely to be fairly high driven by the slew of infrastructure projects like Bharatmala, Smart Cities, PM Awas Yojana and Housing for All. The Union Budget 2018-19 looks promising with increased allocations to infrastructure spending, energising the segment

 

  • The cement industry depends on limestone and other raw materials. However, availability of limestone is limited and thus, it is essential to promote the use of blended cement, which uses alternative raw materials such as fly ash and slag. The increase in the cost of these alternative materials — now fly ash is available on auction and slag on the basis of prevailing market prices — may further increase production costs

 

  • Cement industry is highly energy intensive and ~23% of its total expenditure consists of power and fuel costs

 

Birla Corp

  • The domestic cement sector is the second largest market globally and accounts for 6.9 per cent of the world’s cement output

 

  • The housing sector is the biggest demand driver of cement, accounting for about 67 per cent of the total consumption in India. The other major consumers of cement include infrastructure at 13 per cent, commercial construction at 11 per cent and industrial construction at 9 per cent

 

  • Power and fuel costs increased significantly owing to sharp rise in pet coke and coal prices, lower availability of domestic coal on account of priority given to the power sector and restrictions on pet coke use

 

  • Demand in Uttar Pradesh was heavily impacted during the first nine months of the year due to prolonged scarcity of sand and aggregates.

 

  • Prices in North India remained subdued and sharp increase in road freight and fuel prices put pressure on margins

 

  • Partly compensated by the performance in Eastern Markets, which witnessed an upswing in demand.

 

  • Cement companies are likely to face pressure on their profit margins in the near term on rising prices of pet coke, coal and diesel. Higher power and fuel and freight costs in the near term are likely to continue to put pressure on the margins

 

  • Non availability of railway rakes is posing a key risk to the industry as the movement of both inbound as well as outbound materials are getting constrained affecting the volumes.

 

  • The cement prices are expected to improve in the near future, buoyed by a pick-up in construction activity and easing sand availability. However, if commodity prices do not ease, realisation gains will be offset by higher expenses, keeping margin growth subdued for the industry

 

Ultratech Cement

  • India is the world’s second largest cement producer. In anticipation of demand, ~ 90 million tonnes of capacity was added during the past five years

 

  • FY 2017-18 was also a year of challenges as major States imposed a ban on sand mining, arising out of environmental concerns and entry of the unorganised sector. Sand is used as raw material by the construction industry and the ban impacted construction activity in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Rajasthan

 

  • Supreme Court of India introduced a ban on the use of petcoke in Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh to curb pollution and even though the restriction was subsequently relaxed, there was a hike in import duty on petcoke from 2.5% to 10%

 

  • Overall energy cost rose by 23% attributable to substantial increase in petcoke and coal prices.

Sanghi Industries

  • The capacity utilization of industry during FY-18 was around 65% against 68% during FY-17

 

  • The raw material cost per tonne of sale has increased by around 21% in FY-18 over FY-17

 

  • Power and fuel cost per tonne of sale has increased by around 23% in FY-18 over FY-17 mainly because of increase in coal and petcoke cost and comparatively lower production over FY-17

 

Star Cement

  • The East India market will continue to be deficit to the extent of 10 million tonnes per annum of cement, making it necessary to import cement from outside East India and other regions.

 

  • A cement company that can grow its operations with the least capital is inevitably the one that is most successful.

 

  • The manufacture of clinker entails the transportation of limestone and coal to the plant; the manufacture of cement entails the transportation of clinker and other materials to its plant; the marketing of cement entails expenses to reach material to consumers. Inevitably, the Company with the lowest logistic cost is attractively placed to be the most competitive.

 

  • Some 210 large cement plants together account for 410 million tonnes of installed capacity in the country, while 350 mini cement plants make up the rest. Of the total 210 large cement plants in India, 77 are located in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.

 

  • Cement production in India increased from 230.49 million tonnes during FY2011-12 to reach 297.56 million tonnes during FY2017-18

 

  • Export of cement, clinker and asbestos cement increased at a CAGR of 10.37% between FY2011-12 and FY2017-18 to reach US$ 433.87 million.

 

  • However, during the same period, imports of cement, clinker and asbestos cement increased at a CAGR of 11.14% to reach US$ 174.36 million.