Interesting Reads – 05-11-2018

Stocks that investment gurus would buy for Diwali 2018 (ET)

In this article, ET has explained and filtered stocks based on methods used by 4 investment gurus – James O’ Shaughnessy, Warren Buffett, Joel Greenblatt, Joseph Piotroski

https://bit.ly/2DncDS6

 

Can Ethanol Change Business Dynamics For Sugar Industry? (BQ)

A good read on changing dynamics for sugar industry.

https://bit.ly/2OpEoKH

 

The Low Stress Way to Research Stocks (Safal Niveshak)

Jatin Khemani talks about his equity research process and how he tries to balance the stress part of the equation that it involves

https://bit.ly/2zoZNhq

 

A Brief Overview Of Global & Indian Coffee Sector (Alpha Invesco)

https://bit.ly/2Dkccbb

 

Understanding The Indian Tyre Industry, Key Players & The Road Ahead (Alpha Invesco)

https://bit.ly/2RCMgKU

 

Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator: The Volkswagen Chronicles (Albert Bridge Capital)

Mother of all short squeezes, Volkswagen briefly became the world’s biggest company by market value, as short sellers caught betting on a price drop with borrowed stock scrambled to find shares after a buying spree by Porsche

https://bit.ly/2SNlmRJ

Management Interviews – Globus Spirits, Prataap Snacks, Berger Paints, Ceat

Globus Spirits

  • Investing 25-30 crs into premium IMFL business every year. Sales is small now but it’s a high growth business
  • Economy brand business growing at about 8-10% every year
  • Rajasthan is a biggest state, followed by Haryana and then West Bengal
  • Bihar Distillary – Is for ethanol policy – Large part of capacity will go to OMCs – Will start in next 2 months – Will add about 100 crs of revenue to our business on annual basis – Margins will be north of 20%
  • Have taken price increase and that lead to increase in margins
  • Margin increase due to ethanol is not yet played out
  • 12% margins can be safely assumed this year and will increase once ethanol is played out
  • Rajasthan is over 30% of our revenues and most profitable state, don’t see much change in buiness due to elections
  • There will be some capex in Bihar and Haryana for ethanol

 

Link :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1032528096128262144

 

Prataap Snacks

  • Will not take debt for acquisition of Avadh snacks, already have cash on books of about 140 crs and cash reqd is 145 crs
  • Avadh snacks revenue is 140 crs; Ebitda margins are 7.5-8.5%; No.4 in Gujarat Category
  • They have small debt of 2-3 crs Rs
  • Gujarat is 4-5% of India’s population – they consume around 12-14% of Indian snacks
  • Revenues of Prataap snacks from Gujarat is just 12-25 crs in a year
  • Will take our holding from 80% to 100% in next 4-5 years; until then Avadh promoters will run the business for us
  • We have a growth target of 18-20% and margins of 7.5%
  • Will target revenues of 1250 crs this year

 

Link :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1032522272576159745

 

Berger Paints

  • RM Prices – Moderation in some and some gone up
  • Re devaluation will impact us as 25-30% of RM is imported
  • We will take a price increase of 1-1.5% in September
  • Ebitda margins will be static or some drop if we are unable to take price increase
  • Saboo coating acquisition – Speciality products – Glass coating, Plastic coating – Earlier it was a Noth Indian company – We are planning it to take to different geographies
  • Volume growth was at 17% in Q1 due to base effect; In Q2 it might not be 17% but can expect a good volume growth
  • Market share – 19% in decorative business
  • Capacity utilization – 70-72% in normal months and 90-92% in seasonal months
  • Going to set up a plant near Lucknow in UP which will come up in 2020

 

Link :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1032517987985580032

 

Ceat

  • Our physical rubber inventory will be around 3-4 weeks
  • We have a mix of rubber sourcing i.e. imports and local
  • We are facing some supply issues from Kerela in last 2-3 weeks leading to production stoppage
  • Local rubber prices have moved up from 125/kg to 133/kg (Kerela). As far as international prices are concerned – they are rangebound around 1450 $
  • Availability of carbon black have improved in last 2 months.
  • Re depreciation has also impacted delivery costs in terms of imports
  • 2 Wheller demand is good in last 2-3 months; also seen growth in both OEM and Replacement market
  • We are working for additional capacity addition based on our long term capex plan
  • Likely to incur 1000 cr capex in Halol for TBR – Will be commissione din Q3 of this FY
  • Setting up greenfield plant in Southern india for Passenger Vehicles – Est capex is 2000 crs
  • Capex spend will be in phases ; funded through internal accruals (1/3rd) and debt (2/3rd) – Debt to Equity at end of FY19 could be 0.7-0.8

 

Link :

https://youtu.be/E60gjyHdW58

 

 

 

 

SEBI Annual Report 2018–Quick Notes

Link to the SEBI annual report – https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports/annual-reports/aug-2018/annual-report-2017-18_39868.html 

  • FPI portfolio: Top 40 stocks Forty stocks account for 74% of FPIs’ equity portfolios in India
  • Mutual fund portfolio: Top 40 stocks Forty stocks account for 63% of MFs’ equity portfolios in India
  • LIC portfolio: Top 40 stocks Forty stocks account for 83% of LIC’s equity portfolio in India
  • Of the 223 issues, 216 were from the private sector which raised ` 68,870 crore compared to 118 issues that raised ` 31,683 crore in 2016-17.
  • In the cash segment, the turnover at NSE increasedby 43.1 per cent during 2017-18 compared to 19.3 per cent growth in the previous year. The turnover of BSE too increased by 8.5 per cent during 2017-18 compared to 34.9 per cent growth in the previous year.
  • The turnover of all stock exchanges in the cash segment increased by 37.4 per cent to ` 83.2 lakh crore in 2017-18 from ` 60.5 lakh crore in the previous year.
  • Of the aggregate turnover, NSE accounted for 87 per cent of the total turnover and BSE accounted for 13 per cent of the total turnover.
  • Over the years, index options have emerged as the most traded instrument in the Indian derivatives market. During 2017-18, the share of index options in total turnover at NSE increased further to 81.8 per cent from 77.1 per cent in the previous year.
  • So far, under mass media campaign, more than 67,980 TVCs, around 2, 25,040 radio spots, over 5,200 insertions in various print editions, around 962 screens in cinema halls were covered under the campaign. Further, around 53 crore bulk SMSes in various languages were sent cautioning investors against Ponzi schemes/unregistered CIS
  • During 2017-18, the total amount of fees and other charges received was ` 624.44 crore (audited) as against ` 518.75 crore in 2016-17 (audited). The recurring fee was 48.90 percent in 2017-18 as compared to 60.70 percent in 2016-17 of the total fee collected. During the year 2017-18, the largest recurring fee of ` 78.00 crore was collected from Derivatives Members registration followed by ` 40.82 crore collected from Stock Brokers and Sub- Brokers. In non-recurring fee category, the highest fee was collected from Offer Documents and prospectuses filed (` 112.24 crore) followed by Buy Back of Share (` 106.12 crore) and Takeover Fees (` 29.70 crore).
  • As on March 31, 2018 the total number of employees in various grades is 794 (including employees on deputation/ contract), out of which 698 employees are officers and 96 employees comprise secretaries and other staff. The male and female composition is 527 and 267, respectively.

There is a very long section on SEBI orders which is very interesting to see actions taken and how much time it takes.

Some more snapshots from the report

  • Mumbai continues to be the leader in turnover.

Mumbai Rocks

  • Free Float Market Cap at 45% of total market cap.

Free Float Market Cap

  • Only 3121 stocks trade for more than 100 days.. No of listed maybe 5200.
  • Only 1730 stocks have traded from more than 100 days regularly on NSE.

Trading Frequency

  • CDSL catching up in terms of investor accounts but value-wise NSDL is way above.

NSDL CDSL

  • CDSL leads in geographical spread of DP locations.

Geographical Spread

  • Options share increasing. But its due to calculation on notional value of the contract.

Index Futures to Derivatives

  • Good increase in AUM and no of clients in PMS.

Portfolio Managers

  • AIFs picking up big time.

AIF

  • Not a major jump in FPIs

Intermediaries

  • USA followed by Mauritius on in Assets Under Custody

AUC FPIS

  • No of SME listings are ramping up in a very big way.

SME listings

  • Market cap is still small.

SME capital raising

  • Pending actionable grievances being reduced at a great rate.

SEBI grievancesSEBI pending grievances

  • Sub Brokers reducing !!

Sub BrokersPortfolio Managers RIA RA

  • Given the high networth requirements doubt no of MFs are going to grow anytime soon.

No of Mutual Funds

  • Way too much surveillance ?

Surveillance Measures

Individual Shareholding Increases in Downtrends–PC Jewellers , Vakrangee and Manpasand Beverages top the charts

We had written a note on how Retail Investors keep averaging stocks in this article on NooreshTech Blog

http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2018/04/why-do-traders-go-bust-and-investors-get-lost.html

Look at this snippet from Kotak Institutional Research Report.

Almost all the stocks are in downtrends and have corrected more than 20% from their highs.

 

Page Industries – 90 PE is not expensive – Cartica Capital (Part 2)

In our last post we mentioned how Cartica Capital finds Page Ind. is reasonably valued at 90 PE

The interview was aired on 28th June 2018

Looking at the Shareholding pattern of Page Industries we came across that holding of Cartica Capital has come down from 8,62,721 shares to 6,84,058 shares  between March to June 2018. Price range of Page Ind. during same time was 21800 to 27800

Shareholding of Cartica in Page Ind. over last 3 years

Quarter No. of shares
June 2018 6,84,058
March 2018 8,62,721
September 2016 8,64,565
June 2016 8,69,465
September 2015 8,63,650

Price Chart of Page Ind

Page Industries–90 PE is not expensive–Cartica Capital

An interesting take from Cartica Capital which is the 2nd largest public shareholder in the stock after Nalanda.

Video Link – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnoCjHHyjJU

Check 2.40 to 4.10 . The overall interview is also interesting.

You might want to read up on Modigliani Miller Model for valuation

Indag Rubber–Buys a Group Company – Electric Vehicles Ancillary–Sun Mobility–Diversification or Diworsification?

Intimation under Regulation 30 about investment upto Rs.14.50 crores (USD 2.1 million) by way of acquisition of 21,00,000 equity shares of USD 1 each of SUN Mobility Investor Ltd.(Jersey)

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/9942e6e3-ef09-4c96-ac6c-3ac533796c69.pdf

http://www.sunmobility.co.in/ 

Khemka group has indirect control and ownership.

Investment is being done at book value of USD 1 per share.

Although the total investment is only 14.5 cr as of now. Will this be a good diversification or diworsification ?

Disclosure – No Holdings. Not a recommendation.

Management Interviews – NIIT Technologies, Mastek Ltd., Ashok Leyland, M&M, Bajaj Auto, Sterlite Technologies

NIIT Technologies

  • Annual Salary hikes comes in Q1 leading to depressed margins
  • Order intake for this quarter is $151 mn vs $110 mn YoY with US as lion’s share
  • US is now 50% of revenues vs 48%
  • Within BFSI, amount of spends coming from Capital markets subsegment to meet regulatory impediments are large

Link

https://twitter.com/BloombergQuint/status/1019554623768522752

 

Mastek Ltd

  • As a result of our investments in last 18-24 months, we are seeing a good momentum in topline
  • Financial performance is a lag indicator, our pipeline have grown 25% QoQ, order book remains robust, we are signing multi year deals
  • More IT services will be needed to establish departments set out due to Brexit
  • Sequentially US grew 4.2% and 10% YoY. Investments in digital commerce space (Retail to Ecommerce) is where we are helping our customers
  • We have been in UK for 22 years and US for a year and a half
  • Margins trend will continue to have upward bias as we keep on investing and growin the business

Link

https://twitter.com/BloombergQuint/status/1019555890603556865

 

Ashok Leyland

  • Taken price hike of 1.5-2% in April which helped us to neutralize increase in RM prices
  • In chase of volumes we are not going to do heavy discounting. We don’t push credit into pipe and try to take offtake higher
  • Net cash on books is 1200 crs
  • Its 12-13th sequential quarter of double digit ebitda margins
  • Hopefully in 2nd half of this year we can see softening of steel prices
  • Market share for current quarter is 30.2% for MHCV segment (fallen by 4.5%)
  • Gained market share in LCV segment from 15 to 16% -> 34% growth in volumes
  • We are clearly walking away from negative margins sales and let some of business go. For us it not a market share game, our plan is to grow profitably
  • 8-10% growth at the end of the year is very much possible
  • Extra load in existing vehicles brings safety concerns as it will be overloaded; can be brought prospectively in new vehicles
  • Last quarter we saw heavy discounting by other players to play volume game

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1019483592085270530

 

M&M

  • Govt notifications on extra load cannot be applied retrospectively as we have designed vehicles as per earlier rules
  • Will have to design new truck for new axle load
  • It will take minimum of a year to design and make trucks to be able to leverage full axle capacity that govt has now approved

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1019483282470158336

 

Bajaj Auto

  • Exports grown by 31% in totality
  • Domestic motorcycle grown by 40%
  • CV business grown by 80%
  • All in all grown by 36% in number terms
  • Had a record sales in international three wheelers, on track to achieve 2 million on export side
  • CV business – runrate of 100,000 coming per quarter, annual target of 375,000
  • Domestic motorcycle – Industry growth at 19%, we have grown at 34%
  • Margins at 18.4% vs 20% tradionally
  • CV and Exports have seen same margins
  • Domestic motorcycle is growing more in terms of topline so margins have come off on overall business
  • Will go in more aggressive in terms of pricing and market share for M1 segment (entry level) which forms 15% of turnover
  • Sports segment, 3 wheeler, Spare parts will continue with the same margins

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1020242425636245504

 

Sterlite Tech

  • Sitting at all time high order book from 3100 cr to 6034 cr as on June 2018
  • As of the visibility today we are predicting $ 100 mn profit mark can be achieved by march 2019
  • Margins significantly improved from FY 16 to FY 17
  • One of our facilities which was operated at 45% utilization is now operated at 95% utilization
  • Overall operating efficiency is improving
  • 24-25% margins is our medium term outlook (no expansion)
  • Metallurgica acquisition will help in Europe as a startegic hub and also brings in new set of customers. Will be EPS accretive immediately
  • Out of 6000 cr order book, 5000 cr is coming from products which is largely from european markets. Rest 1000 cr is system and software development

Link

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1020164688032612352

Management Interviews – MIRC Electronics, SH Kelkar, Dish TV, Balaji Telefilms, Bajaj Electricals

MIRC Electronics

  • Sold 150,000 units grossing 90 crs of washing machines last year , expecting it to go upto 250,000 units this year grossing 160 crs

 

  • Contribution margin in washing machines will go up from 27% to 31%

 

  • Capacity utilization at 50% now

 

  • Bennett coleman holds 7% stake in company which in effect can do 60 crs worth of advertising, out of which 30 crs is unutilized at this moment

 

  • By next March warrants will kick in, so total infusion will be 130 crs (90 crs + 40 crs warrants), Our borrowing was 150 crs.

 

  • Non core assets can realize 120-130 crs

 

Link : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1016922438284673024

 

SH Kelkar

  • Long term initiatives such as Investment in R&D , Sales expansion, Reducing operating expenses are all in track

 

  • Pressure on gross margins as raw material supply scenario which has panned out in Indian chemical suppliers

 

  • Had a 6% dip in gross margins at 39% vs 44% (Average margins). Will slowly recover in 2nd half of Financial year

 

  • On last years base we can grow Revenues at excess of 15%

 

  • We have higher market share in premium products then in lower range products

 

Link : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1016946164149596160

 

Dish TV

  • Added 3 lakh subscribers in this quarter

 

  • Revenue growth guidance – 7 to 8 % for full year

 

  • HD has contributed 40% of new subsscribers this quarter. Out of total subscribers base 17% are consuming HD content

 

  • Ebitda margins has moved up from 30.5% to 33.6% QoQ. Guidance 34-36% this year

 

  • Synergies from personal cost, back end, admin, content has just started to come in

 

  • One time cost have come in Finance cost due to upfront fees paid on re nogotiation of D2H debt at much attractive interest rate. Finance cost will be 25-30 crs lower from what you see now

 

  • Our market share is more than 40%, focus is to add share on net basis and increase ARPU

 

  • With incoming of Tariff order, it will help restore level playing field between cable and DTH

 

Link : https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1016929570631532544

 

Balaji Telefilms

  • We have doubled the number of subscribers in last 3 months from 1.2 million to 3.5 million (Excl. JIO)

 

  • We aim to breakeven and have library of 70-75 shows by end of 3 years

 

  • We have carved out exclusive digital rights for some TV shows

 

  • Telcos giving data are very cheap rates which is boosting consumption

 

  • Content comes at cost of 30L-50L for ½ Hour

 

  • Every 6-7Th show will be a show in regional content

 

  • Target of reaching 8 million subscribers by 2020-2021

 

  • ARPU right now is 15 Rs and aim is to get it to 20 Rs, will do that by pushing it to international audience at 1$ i.e. 65-70 Rs

 

Link : https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1016912708896092162?s=08

 

Bajaj Electricals

  • Last 2 years have taken a lot of hits to get our distribution in place, now expecting a high two digit growth

 

  • June July August will have a low base effect so 15% – 20% growth would be normal given good demand this year

 

  • Have good orders in EPC business from UP Power Distribution which will tilt % contribution. However we want to maintain it at 50-50 in the long run as EPC gives visibility but is risky business. Core business is consumer product business

 

  • We placed bid for 16 projects of low cost housing expecting to get 3-4, but we got it for all 16 projects i.e. order of 5000 crs. Which we do not have capacity for. Luckily in survey we found many houses do not exist, so will have to do orders worth 3000-3500 cr by March 2020

 

  • Total order book is higher than 8000 crs

 

Link : https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1016903607143133190?s=08