Banks Strategy of Mutual Fund Distribution–Highly Biased ?

8 out of top 10 Mutual Fund Distributors by Commission are Banks. With more than 3200 cr of commission income in between them.

Strategy is Highly Biased ?

Bank Selling Strategy

State Bank of India makes 99% of its mutual fund commission income from distributing schemes of SBI Mutual Fund.

SBI seems to have picked up distributing mutual funds only in last 3 years.

In last 1 year commission income has gone up from 178.7 cr to 557.9 cr !!!

Year Commission Income 
2017-18 557.9
2016-17 178.7
2015-16 62.12
2014-15 69.38
2013-14 28.95
2012-13 36.43
2011-12 30.76
2010-11 37.64

ICICI Bank gets 73% of the mutual fund commission income from distributing ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

But ICICI Securities only gets 18.5% of the commission income by distribution of ICICI Pru MF. Is it because one cannot buy Regular Plans through ICICI Direct but account holders have a choice to select their own preferred AMC ?

ICICI Securities Limited 316.53 58.45 18.5

Source Links

AMFI commission Disclosures –

Websites of respective Mutual Funds

More than 800 Mutual Fund Distributors with Payouts of more than 1 cr in 2018

In the last few years Mutual Fund Distribution has picked up in a strong way.

The number of mutual fund distributors with a pay-out of 1 cr plus has almost gone up 3.5 times since 2011-2012.

Mutual Fund Commission

The top 20 distributors by commission paid

Top 20 MF Distributors

NJ IndiaInvest continues to be on top.

8 out of the top 10 distributors are Banks !!

Out of all the banks SBI has increased commission income to 557.9 cr from 178.7 cr last year.

Source Links

AMFI commission Disclosures –

Websites of Mutual Funds

Management Interviews – M&M, CCL Products, Take Solutions, Mahindra Life, Motherson Sumi, Bajaj Electricals

M&M – Tractor & Farm Equipment Division

  • Q1 growth will be in mid teens, annual growth will be at 8-10% and hence demand shall get subdued going forward in the year
  • Growth last year was on low base, as we get in H2 of this year, base will be higher
  • Last year 37% of revenues came from global businesses
  • We lead the prices in the industry. Last price increase was in march timeframe
  • Will look at prices again in July – August
  • In next 5 years we aim 50% from global revenue against 37% now
  • Levers to growth will be
    1. Shift from Tractor to Farm Machinery
    2. Global strategy – Global business growth
    3. Creating new technologies
    4. Managing costs

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESEMGS4inI0

 

CCL Products

  • New plant coming online at end of this FY
  • If we receive customers approval in time we can reach upto 20% growth or else it stays in range of 10-20%
  • Ours is not a commodity based business, we supply to brands and brand owners. So change in coffee prices does not impact our business materially
  • Revenue growth is not a correct indicator for us, as revenue figures are based on tea / coffee prices which have fallen 15-20% from last year which automatically means proportionate decrease in topline
  • 70% of production cost is raw material itself, so significant impact will be seen in topline
  • Bottomline will give you better indicator because as volumes increase bottom line is also increasing
  • US consumes 80k tonne of instant coffee, japan consumes 25k tonne, We in India consume only 10-15k tonne. India is growing at 15-20% YoY
  • Our focus will be on new products where we see larger potential of growth
  • Last year we achieved 46 crs in domestic market, this year we are projecting 100 crs based on our Q1 performance

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvM3VW_83jY

 

Take Solutions

  • Looking at organic growth rate of 23-24%
  • Strong order book which stands at 190 million $ as on 31st March
  • Last 12 quarters, Lifescience business have grown at 8.5% CAGR QoQ
  • Going through acquisition route in clinical research business in USA
  • We have cash of 350 crs on B/S
  • We are seeing account led growth from existing customers which is giving us higher revenues
  • Our aspiration is to do 500-600 mn $ in revenues in three years and we are currently at 246 mn $
  • depreciation does not impact us much as we earn in $ we also spend much in $

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTXtGB3yqS8

 

Mahindra Life

  • Commences new project ‘Roots’ at Kandivali East in Mumbai
  • Sub 1 acre project – 1.42 L sq ft saleable area
  • Sub 200 crs of revenue potential from this project
  • 1 project going on in NCR, 1 in Bangalore, 1 in Pune, 1 in Hyderabad and 1 in Chennai
  • Evaluating the impact of Accounting Std changes on Financials
  • Will see few launches in Mumbai and Out of Mumbai in this year

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOppO0KIMdI

 

Motherson Sumi

  • 3 new greenfield sights will add as by 2019-2020 it will add a billion USD to topline
  • This seems to be the last plant for the order book of 17.2 billion
  • Acquisitions will make much of a impact on to the topline, we are sitting at 12.5-13 billion, will go to 18 billion for motherson sumi
  • We have a huge pipeline for acquistion, we are negotiating
  • Hungarian and other plants will come to full capacity in 2018 end or Q1 2019

Full Interview ;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dKTRNL-9U

 

Bajaj Electrical

  • Margins are very competitive in government orders, from industry point of view its not a money making situatuion for us as tender prices are very low
  • 1st acquisition for Bajaj Electricals – 80% shares will be acquired in NIRLEP and subsequently 100%
  • NIRLEP’s last year turnover was 60 crs and clients like IKEA, Future group. Turnover in current year should cross 80 crs
  • NIRLEP is not profitable as of now

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrdpwGOyKi0&feature=youtu.be

 

 

Management Interviews – Saksoft, Sanghi Inds, Escorts, BEML, Welspun Corp, Lemon Tree Hotels, Omax Auto, Bluestar

Saksoft

  • Focused on digital services in following spaces
    1. Fintech
    2. Healthcare
    3. Logistics
    4. Ecommerce
    5. Telecom
    6. B2B
  • Our revenue drivers are
    1. Application services
    2. Digital testing
    3. Analytical services
  • depreciation is good as 90% revenus comes from Europe and US
  • 5 Customers with more than 1 million $ revenue
  • 90% revenues comes from repeat customers
  • Margins can improve 50-100 bps from current 13% odd
  • We keep looking for midsize companies between valuation of 5mn to 10mn in size
  • Expect growth to be better than last year
  • Small debt of 25 crs
  • Promoter % holding has reduced only because of reclassification from promoter to non promoter

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1006101894152912896

 

Sanghi Industries

  • Not cut off any prices from May in Mumbai
  • There will be impact on price as well as volumes as monsoons will arrive
  • Mumbai forms around 10% of our market
  • A fortnight’s shutdown was taken in month of Feb which was a one off event, growth should return to normalcy from this quarter
  • FY 19 we expect to end at 3-3.2 mn tonnes of volumes sales
  • Typically Q1 and Q2 will see 40% of the years volume and Q3 and Q4 see 60% of the voumes
  • Diesel and Energy prices have gone up and will have impact on whole industry
  • In Q4 no cement company posted 20%+ margins and Ebitda have come down to below 1000 from 1200-1400 range
  • Fly ash availibility shall improve next quarter or so
  • Capex plan is on track as planned, entire project will get commissioned by end of FY 20

Full Interview :

https://www.bloombergquint.com/videos?id=5b1e0126bf48855f66543239

 

Escorts

  • Expect insutry to grow at double digit somewhere around 9-11% is possible on a already strong base
  • Escorts have been supplier to Indian railways for suspension and braking systems, now we are looking to expanding our portfolio going into electrical categories
  • There is an inflation pressure since last 15 months and trend will continue for this year too, so far able to pass on all costs with a lag of a quarter
  • We are expecting 2.5 times growth happening on topline side
    1. Railways – 4 times growth
    2. Construction – 3 times growth
    3. Tractor – 2.5 times growth

Full Interview :

https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1006099015065165825

 

BEML

  • Order book is around 6700 crs and expecting good orders this year
  • Can see 30% revenue growth this year
  • Mining and construction order book target is 1800 crs
  • Rail and Metro order book target is 1800 – 1900 crs
  • Defence we see 1000 crs order this year
  • Improved margins will come from spare sales in defence, high end equipments in mining and construction, memo orders in railways
  • Margins will be better than last year
  • Capex this year will be double of last year (70 crs) into aerospace, rail and metro, ARV order in defence
  • Stake sale is delayed because of due diligence process

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbDI0lVfXos

 

Welspun Corp

  • 2 orders one from Latin American market and one from American market which will be serviced in this FY itself
  • Current order book is at 1.64 Mill Tonnes, consolidated order value of 11400 cr rs. These 2 orders out together will add 700 crs odd
  • Both orders will be fairly remunerative as compared to previous orders
  • Margins in American order will be higher than normal margins
  • Very strong demand and prices for oil so American market looks good, till now we have not faced any hindrance
  • We are already booked for 9 months of this year

Full Interview :

https://twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1006407074467778560

 

Lemon Tree Hotels

  • Demand over last 5 years have grown 13% a year and supply is only going to grow at 6-7%
  • No one is building hotels anymore due to poor economics at present
  • Huge shift seen in young middle class population with rising disposable income towards branded mid market hotels
  • There would roughly be a 500-1000 bps of difference between Revenue nos. of a hotel chain and a standalone hotel
  • Over 200k hotel rooms in India, over 62% is branded
  • Over time standalone hotels will be under pressure to merge with chains
  • Next 5-7 years – ther will be 5-6 dominant chains in India international as well as domestic
  • Bombay region has highest barrier to entry because cost of land is very high and development approval process is a nightmare
  • Mumbai Lemon tree premier is 671 room hotel, 8L sq ft built up area, will be ready in next 3.5 years. Avg rates will be around 8000 rs. with 80% occupancy
  • Group occupancy rate is at 76-77%
  • Our ability is to re price in better in winters than in summers
  • Current debt is 1000 crs, don’t see debt significantly going up this year
  • In summary we have 6600 rooms, 66 hotels.
  • 300 room hotel in Bombay, 200 room in Pune, 90 room in Dehradun, 140 room in Kolkata and 140 room in Udaipur. All owned assets
  • Also open another 700 managed rooms this year.
  • Bombay will require significant investment of 800 crs, 200 crs already funded, rest will be through internal accruals and little debt. Peak debt will be 1300 crs. Will be comfortably able to service it
  • ARR’s are higher for this holiday season than last year

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bDYn9i-6nc

 

Omax Auto

  • Indian railways have taken decision to replace conventional ICF designed coaches with German LHP designed coach
  • There are roughly 45000 coaches in circulation today and replacement is planned in next 7-8 years i.e. 6000 coaches per year plus annual demand of 3500 new coaches evey year. So demand will be around 10000 coaches p.a.
  • We make coach furnishing items to support production units
  • Current capacity utilization is at 72% and processing 4800 tonnes stainless steel every year. With capacity expansion in next 2 years the capacity will double
  • Formal production will start in last quarter of FY 19 (Around 15-20% of overall capacity to come online)
  • Last year turnover from Indian railways was 150 crs , tgt for 2020 is to take it to 500 crs, reducing the dependence on 2W business
  • 3 years down the line railways shall form 35-40% of overall sales
  • Ebitda in last year was 4.5%, expecting it to rise to 7-8%
  • Our margins from railway business are better than automotives
  • Looking to dispose land in Gujarat and certain part of Northern India

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYWHIzNTYsE

 

Bluestar

  • Penetration levels in this country is very low say around 5%
  • Impulse purchase due to summer have not happened this year but market outlook demand has not gone
  • As far as GDP grows by 7-7.5%, market for room air conditioners will grow by 10%
  • Jan to March was a good quarter, April to June is not going to be good but at the year end we see 10% growth.
  • Inventory levels is the one pressure one can see, industry will have 500,000 units as inventory i.e. 2-3 months
  • Good monsoon and festival season is the hope
  • North and West did good in May, South and East sales were down due to rains.
  • Air conditioner is the last durable for many buyers i.e. after 4wheelers
  • Very likely to increase prices in July or Aug

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTVkVxmlVJQ

 

 

 

 

Management Interviews – UFO Moviez, Gujarat Gas, Glenmark Pharma, Thomas Cook, Coal India, Godfrey Phillips

UFO Moviez – Kapil Agarwal, Joint MD

  • Ad revenue growth should be 20% or above
  • Minutes Ad / Show should grow at 20-25%
  • of screens are constant 50 +/- is what we expect
  • Main screens growth is coming from multiplexes where we do not have advertising rights as they sell their own advertising
  • Caravan has grown from EBIT of 2crs to 8crs and expecting healthy growth further

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1001716589711036417

 

Gujarat Gas – Nitin Patel, CEO

  • We can maintain 6.8 mmscmd volume growth
  • We have defined 2 segments PNG/CNG (Gas provided by Govt. of Gujarat) and LNG (Buy and Sell to the industries), Growth will come from both segments
  • Industrial prices – 80-90% contracts are dollar based; dollar shocks are passed on
  • CNG/ PNG is non dollar based pricing – we monitor and pass on the prices as per strategy
  • Bids for 86 geographies and 147 districts opening shortly – Out of these we have bid for 48 in 1st screen and 2nd screen is going on, eventually we will see at 20 odd cities for bidding

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1001713785256767488

 

Glenmark Pharma – Glenn Saldhana, CMD

  • US business is challenging but got couple of approvals this quarter
  • From Q1 one should see US business doing much better than last year
  • New approvals will over shadow the price decline that we see in US
  • Everyone is facing margins pressure in US and hard to predict what will it look like
  • On a full year basis margins will look reasonably good, not providing any specific number
  • Several molecules under development which could get out licensed in current year
  • Will generate free cash in core business which will bring down debt
  • Strong growth from India in domestic and consumer care business
  • R&D spends @ 12% will remain flat on full year basis

Full Interview :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1001711057059176448

 

Thomas Cook – Madhavan Menon, CMD

  • After removing one offs – profitability have grown by 9% in Q4
  • Sterling holdiays resort losses halved; EBITDA nos. have shown signs of turnaround
  • SOTC and Thomas cook forward booking for outbound travel is 34% above last year, after depreciating Re it is still 28-30% growth
  • Have used analytics to follow on leads and regional tours have taken off significantly this year
  • Foreign exchange business is the cash cow in thomas cook portfolio, no intention of demerging
  • Not want to get into NBFC at this time

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7USZtOngDOg

 

Coal India – Samiran Dutta, Chief Manager – Finance

  • Q4 was best in last few years in terms of production and offtake
  • Production was 183 mn tonne and offtake was 158 mn tonne
  • In Jan 2018 we have revised our prices
  • Realizations in Q4 were Rs.1573 / tonne vs 1495 / tonne
  • FY’19 production growth at 16% and offtake at 13%
  • Targetting production of 630 mn tonne in FY 19
  • Incentive is around 500 crores which is included in sales number
  • E – Auction prices is around ~2000 / tonne
  • Started year with 55 mn tonne of inventory
  • Receivables have come down as marketing team is continously monitoring and hope to continue in future also

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1001664994038104064

 

Godfrey Phillips – KK Modi, President

  • Industry volumes have come down by 4%
  • Illicit cigarettes are around 25% od total market
  • FY 19 Industry growth will be flattish and our volumes will go up slightly (in single digits)
  • Slight increase in prices due to gst but not significant
  • FY 19 if taxes remains stable, prices will remain stable, as industry will not raise prices
  • Current mkt share is slight higher than 12%
  • We are currently selling only in 40% of India , looking for geographical expansion esp. Soth India

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpWrpUs0zhk

 

 

Management Interviews – TTK Prestige, Prabhat Dairy, Atul Auto, Tata Chemicals, Ashok Leyland, Manappuram Finance

TTK Prestige – TT Jagannathan

  • Dont give revenue projections but domestic rev growth of 14.5% can be repeated in FY19
  • There is good growth across the board
  • We will have to pass on cost increases to market for increase in aluminium prices
  • Looking for 150 crores capex this year for prestige brand
  • Revenues from cleaning solution business – little below our projection of 30 crs – Projecting 60 crs in this FY
  • Major growth is coming from online and rural
  • Export outlook is good this year with 2 new clients, expect more than 100% growth this year

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/998496641983250432?s=08

 

Prabhat Dairy, Vivek Nirmal, Joint MD

  • B2C contributes 30% of our revenue, intend it to take to 50% in next 2 years
  • 70% largely comes from premium dairy ingredients
  • Gross margins are higher from B2C vs B2B. However due to higher spend on distribution, Ebitda margins from B2B and B2C are at pretty same levels
  • We expect a double digit margins post 2020 after distribution and sales efficiency kicks in
  • Milk procurement prices are stable at 23₹/ltr
  • Largely we are Maharashtra focused brand, cover more than 40,000 outlets in Maharashtra
  • Ice cream is still a small product, its not more than 10 crores – still in test launch phase – will move towards 100 crore category in next few years
  • Promoters have increased stake in company last year, will be looking to increase at the right price

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/998493459701948416?s=08

 

Atul Auto – Jitendra Adhia

  • Will be doing double digit growth in next fiscal as well
  • We find demand is reviving from rural and semi urban side
  • In medium term i.e. 3–5 years our export contribution shall be sizeable at 20-25% vs 7% as of now
  • We expect capacity utilization above 80% in next fiscal
  • We were going to take price hike but waiting for right time
  • Our network is around 320 touch points and will keep on increasing 20-25% yoy

Full Interview :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/998463672300158976?s=08

 

Tata Chemicals – R Mukandan 

  • We have completely exited fertilizer which led to some erosion of numbers
  • Focus is shifted from consumer product business to modern trade
  • Sharpest change have come from pulses from having a long supply chain to having a short supply chain, improved margins but impacted revenue numbers
  • Margins depends on market condition which has been favorable to us, will stick by 18% margins
  • Europe operations are doing well, main product sales were not impacted but what they earned additionally by selling electricity to customers were impacted
  • We have soda ash and salt business there. Salt is rock steady. Additional power sales were impacted due to disturbances in turbine which is fixed now
  • PAT nos. include one time sale of fertilizer business which have to be factored in
  • We have de-risked the Rallis business even if monsoon is impacted slightly
  • Rains in Colombo is good and it should be hitting Kerala any time
  • Targeted 5000 crores mark in revenue coming 3-4 years
  • We are in basic pulses, launched organic pulses, launched besan and now khichdi, chilla mixes and a range of products still coming out
  • Also building the spices portfolio

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/998427918219919361?s=08

 

Ashok Leyland – Gopal Mahadevan, CFO

  • Net cash is around 3000 crores
  • Have seen market shifting from smaller tonnage to heavier tonnages
  • In full year seen a rise of 12-14% in industry volumes
  • We do not sell on credit
  • Industry is consistently discounting and we have been consistently raising prices
  • As RM price is going up we have no choice but to raise prices
  • In last 7 years we have moved from 300 touch points to roughly around 3000 touch points today
  • We were able to grab huge market growth in North and also in Central India in FY 17-18
  • Rising crude prices – Freight cost rise will not be in consideration for infrastructure projects to happen

Full Interview :

https://youtu.be/O09a_Polgfc

 

Manappuram Finance – Mr Nandakumar

  • Last 2 quarters we are doing well, collections have been improving in micro finance and other businesses
  • Targeting 10-15% growth in gold loan, good recovery in micro finance, CV business has stabilized, Home finance there was some stress
  • Asset quality will remain good in gold loan buinsess
  • Online gold loan – volumes are high and risks are low
  • Average loan to value in gold loan is below 70%
  • Efforts are in full steam for digitization
  • Security cost has gone up by 130-140 crores, looking to bring down this cost by electronic technology and new storage models
  • 25% is non gold book – it will move upto 30% in current year

Full Interview:

https://youtu.be/mR2u3jCs2EU

Management Interviews – Aarti Industries, Hester Bio, KEC International, Godrej Agrovet, JBM Auto, Suven Life

Aarti Industries – Rajendra Gogri, MD

 

  • Demerging Home & Personal care business as it is relatively small and customer base and manufacturing facilities are completely different, so once hived off – separate focus can be given
  • Merging manufacturing business of Nascent chemicals (Subsidiary of Co.), which will be strategically good for company and JV partner have also shown willingness
  • We had 9% volume growth for the quarter and substantial improvement in pharma
  • 9-10 crores impact was because of forex for this quarter
  • FY 19 – expecting substantial growth in volumes as capex already done
  • FY 19 – Looking at 15% volume growth and bottomline growth of 20%
  • 18-20% cagr in bottomline is possible for next 3-4 years

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MJ4fxMaHHU

 

Hester Bio Sciences – Rajiv Gandhi, MD

 

  • Capacity of poultry vaccines have just commissioned
  • Expecting good tender business for PPR vaccines
  • Looking at 15-20% growth in this F.Y.
  • Creating infrastructure in Africa and expecting atleast 100% growth as far as exports are concerned
  • 2 large animal vaccines are in the pipeline and 1 poultry vaccine besides a few diagnostic kits
  • Commissioned a new capacity in poultry vaccines, will increase our capacity by 35-40%.
  • Need not put any new capacities for large animal vaccines and still can increase business by 100-150% with current capacity
  • No expansion needed in Nepal for PPR vaccines
  • Expanding in Africa and building project in Tanzania to manufacture for African specific animal diseases

Full interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVdaJCFQThw

 

KEC International – Rajiv Agarwal, CFO

 

  • Margins at 10.1% vs 9.3% for year as a whole, Q4 margins at 10.1% vs 10.4% yoy
  • Revenue growth from railways is significant, margins are still catching up there
  • Next year expecting topline growth of 15% and margins of close to about 10%
  • Closing order book of 17,300 crores
  • On international front order intake is not so great, faced many headwinds
  • Railway order book is around 5000 crores, expect revenue to double in current financial year from 850 cr to 1500-1600 cr

Full Interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEXFFptB524

 

Godrej Agrovet – Balram Yadav, MD

 

  • Had a PAT growth of 6%, if we remove exceptional gains in last year
  • Agrochemical business had 13% growth
  • Oil Palm Plantation had 15% growth
  • Astec growth 18.5%
  • Dairy buinsess 14.5% growth
  • Bangladesh business 12.5% growth
  • Animal feed business 8% volume growth annually and 18.5% in Q4
  • All businesses are planned for mid-teen growth
  • Last year we launched rice herbicide based on bispyribac sodium and snatched some market share because it is getting lot of acceptance among farmers
  • No. of sprays in agro chemicals have to be reduced, so planning to launch combinations
  • Have launched flavoured milk, will launch UHT Milk, UHT Lassi, Buttermilk, Yogurts in dairy segment
  • If commodity prices go down, it is good for us as animal feeds raw material cost will go down
  • Oil prices are protected by import duty
  • Something needs to be done for pro active export policy so that domestic price can be stabalised

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nhp9JDay9vA

 

JBM Auto – Nishant Arya, ED

 

  • 9% topline growth on annual basis and 15% growth in this quarter
  • In coming years we will be growing at 20-25% minimum
  • Invested in designing and R&D capabilities
  • FY18 – 85 crs topline in tool room division and rest from component division
  • Focus on electric buses will contribute significantly in FY19
  • Collectively for all the business put together we are targeting 2500 crores of revenue
  • In few weeks will be announcing orders bagged in bus division
  • Last quarter is generally the best quarter for the year
  • Will try and target to take margins to 14% mark
  • Merging subsidiaries and JV’s to JBM Auto

Full Interview:

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/996312597275201536

 

Suven life sciences – Venkat Jasti, CEO

 

  • Specialty chemicals business have come down while CRAMS have gone up
  • One of the item in phase III has moved to ANDA submission which have given good jump on topline and bottomline
  • R&D spend would be in 10 mn $ range for pre clinical development upto phase I
  • Suven 502 is in final stages of enrollment whose study results will be out in 2nd qtr of next year
  • Suven 3031 will be entering into phase II
  • CRAMS – Order book cant come until progress of molecules goes into next stage
  • Formulations business are ANDA based activities, only when it matures into operations then only it can be monetized which will happen in 2019-20
  • Core CRAMS expectations – 10-15% growth YoY basis

Full Interview :

https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/996303470318706694

Concall Notes Q4FY18 – Hikal Ltd, ITD Cementation, Welspun Enterprises

Hikal Ltd. Q4FY18 Concall update

Compiled by Dhruv Nawab

  • Pharmaceutical division contributes 60% of the revenue and the balance 40% is contributed by crop protection division.

Crop Protection

  • Company partner with crop protection companies for custom synthesis and custom manufacturing of intermediates and active ingredients.
  • Have their own product portfolio for specialty chemical and biocide industry.
  • Contract manufacturing contributes 70% to total revenue of crop protection division and balance from their own product portfolio. Majority of their business is export oriented.
  • 10-11 products in contract manufacturing and 5-6 own products.
  • In specialty chemical business company offers biocides, anti microbial additives. These products are used in industries like leather, paints, paper, water treatment, personal care, and textile.

Pharmaceutical

  • Leading custom manufacturer of APIs partnering with global pharmaceutical company for contract manufacturing and development.
  • 50% of the business comes by contract manufacturing and 50% is generic by nature.
  • 5-6 products in contract manufacturing and 8-9 products in generic portfolio.
  • Majority of pharmaceutical business is export oriented with 55% of sales coming from US, 30% from Europe and remaining from rest of the world.
  • Plans to file 4-5 DMFs every year.
  • Business is gaining traction in new geographies like Russia, Latin America.
  • In pharma business 40% of the customers are repeat client.

 

  • Company long term credit rating upgraded from BBB+ to A- and short term credit rating from A2 to A2+. Expecting another upgrade in credit rating this year.
  • Company is expected to grow at 15-20% for next 2-3 years.
  • Likely to maintain current margin profile for both the division.
  • Company revenue grew 25% in this quarter y-o-y.
  • Crop protection business grew 28% and pharma division grew by 21% in this quarter y-o-y
  • Revenue for the year ended 31st march 2018 increased 26%
  • Cash PAT growth for the year ended 31st march 2018 increased 16% from 140crores to 163 crores.
  • Working capital days improved from 160 days last year to 150 days in current year.
  • Crop protection downturn completed in 2016-17 and now demand has started to increase. Crop protection cycle is usually of 6-7 years.
  • Major growth in crop protection business came from increasing demand of existing molecules and also from introduction of new products done for their innovator client.
  • Problems faced by Chinese chemical industry have shifted large business to India which will be beneficial for the company. 15-20% growth expected in Crop protection business driven by launch of new molecules.
  • In custom manufacturing business all the price increase in raw materials are passed on to customers.
  • Company received 2 environmental clearances for expansion of their plant.
  • 250 crores CAPEX plan in next 2 years.
  • EBITDA growth would be in line with sales growth.
  • Company will continue to spend 3-4% of the revenue on R&D.
  • In crop protection company is developing more on-patent products.
  • Biocide business to grow significantly because of troubles faced by Chinese companies. Barriers to entry are high in biocide business.
  • It takes 3-4 years for DMF filing to commercialise.
  • New products add approximately 5% to the revenue.
  • D/E ratio will be maintained under 1 during expansion.
  • Company will reduce its dependency on China for its raw materials by being backward integrated.
  • Margins of pharmaceutical business are likely to improve because of the new products being higher margin product.
  • Both the divisions have 70% capacity utilisation.
  • Competitors in crop protection – PI Industries, in pharma – Divi’s, dishman.
  • In pharma opportunity is more on generic side.

 

ITD Cementation Q4FY18 Concall update :

Compiled by Manish Mall

  • Part of mumbai underground metro completed 2 km before time
  • in pune and nagpur project too ahead of time
  • 1900 cr for marine projects in completion
  • nuclear power project first time project
  • for road 3 HAM jobs, on own — each one in excess of 1000 cr
  • China harbour tie-up for bridge over ganga
  • L1 in Andaman 300 cr
  • port of Singapore looking fwd too — will keep looking for international projects
  • patna & Bangalore airport in pipeline
  • hydel tunnel in north east
  • school building in kolkatta
  • marine projects margins better than elevated metro
  • mumbai metro project no investment by company totally funded by client
  • Bangalore elevated metro is a big project – going bit slow than planned
  • 126 – 329 cr debtors gone up — delhi metro — claim will clear that in time to come
  • project is completed , billing is left ; so debtors will be cleared
  • last year total 3500cr of projects are in final stages
  • udhan gudi order received now after 3 yrs — work to be started in May itself
  • 1800 cr of project has been cancelled —
  • will be participating in many projects all over india many projects coming up ( repeated many times , good amount of work orders by govt mainly )
  • itd cem india jv — bangalore metro and kolkatta projects
  • interest cost have gone down in the projects — net debts 155 cr
  • royalty payment of 0.5 % is very helpful — we get many projects against royalty payment
  • bidding for 10000 cr of orders in pipeline in next few months
  • mumbai ahmedabad bullet train project is a huge project — looking fwd to it
  • 7 packages 15k cr each — japanese or indian JV
  • station / elevated / underground — will be looking for Elevated on own, no JV
  • qip used to paid off debt — mutual fund investment
  • receivable days 45 days ; working capital is comfortable
  • cochin shipyard marine lost marginally by 2% against L&T, we have good competitive adv
  • Mumbai coastal road project will be bidding for it — no JV reqd
  • capex 60-70 cr — for renewal of assets — last qtr was 30 cr
  • tunnel boring machine is with JV partner

 

Welspun Enterprises Q4FY18 Concall Update :-

Compiled by Manish Mall

  • Order flow of 7000 cr in pipeline
  • 2000 cr order recd now lately for tamil nadu HAM projects
  • 5500 – 6000 cr EPC business order book
  • delhi meerut 14 months ahead of completion — annuity bonus expected– 34 cr expected
  • 50% bonus to be shared with subcontract
  • yumuna nagar order project to start soon — will be completed  ahead of schedule
  • CGARG project execution in full swing
  • over water bridge project financial closure done Q1fy 19 should start
  • currently 4 large projects going stong 2 projects started giving revenue other 2 to give revenue in next month
  • devas water project execution begun — epc business not HAM
  • stood L1 for tamilnadu HAM project 55 km , should get award letter soon
  • oil n gas Jv Adani welspun – Mumbai / gujarat / kutch 2 blocks
  • rigs are enroute to start soon — Mumbai block recd from Ongc D9 is own project
  • revenue to start in q3-q4 of FY 19-20
  • Palej block is on hold from Govt side , should start in next 5-6 months
  • NHAI 45 bids about 45000 cr in pipeline — to bid for 2/3rd of projects
  • expecting 5000 cr order in future other than orders recd
  • Good visibility for next 2 years –
  • To double up revenues in 2 years purely by Infra projects to be 4000 cr
  • NET DEBT IS NEGATIVE — CASH SURPLUS – FIXED ASSETS ARE Healthy
  • invested 369 cr equity in HAM projects
  • will like to maintain 600 cr of cash surplus for next few qtrs no equity dilution
  • by Q2 will bid for water projects — 1000 cr expected orders
  • Receivables are 2 kinds — service concession receivable ( short term ) —
  • trade receivable are the debtors or work in progress
  • ebidta margin is 10.9% — on a stable basis should be 12% other than other income
  • asset light and depreciation will always be low
  • Capex 200 -250 fresh equity will be reqd for HAM projects over next 2 yrs
  • if win more projects this may go up in future by Fy 2020
  • EPC order backlog of 6000 cr which to be completed in next 2-3 years
  • vision: – to complete projects ahead of schedules with quality completion
  • started 3 projects in this qtr – invested 300 cr in this projects on HAM projects
  • will not be monetizing mumbai blocks — D9 is close by so completing the projects with ONGC projects — additional well drilling to be done — revenue by 2021-22 around 5 billion over time
  • not related to welspun steel business
  • cash on books to be deployed to business projects later on
  • NHAI started rating Developers , which is good for Us as built good goodwill
  • EPC business has easy entry business so will stay asset light : – will like to complete projects with the partnership of subcontractor and not complete self going ahead.

 

 

Management Interviews – Arvind, JSPL, MAS Financial, Welspun Enterprises

Arvind – Kulin Lalbhai, ED

  • We are going to invest 500 crores every year in textile business for
  1. Will put up Garment capacities, Today we covert 10% of our fabrics to garments, will take it to 30%
  2. Investing in technical textiles
  3. Investing in new line such as ‘Performance’ and ‘Smart’
  4. Investing in branding business of Arvind
  • With ₹ depreciation happening , exports will see benefit in 2 nd half of this fiscal
  • We are present in 250 towns and have 20 different brand and retail formats, usually end up adding 150 new stores every year to our network
  • One would see demerger in quarter 2 and actual listing process  sometime in October

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxnczuh1Hu4

 

JSPL – NA Ansari, CEO

  • Oman business – Ebitda in this quarter is close to 71 mn $, 120% more YoY
  • Increased production in Oman, Rolling mill is producing more than 100,000 per month, costs have come down substantially
  • Improved product mix, selling more value added rounds and less of normal square billets
  • Not only working in Oman and UAE but also export to Saudi and Europe
  • Angul ramp up doing well – targeting more than 200,000 tonnes of steel to come
  • Power business is struggling as coal is not available at pricing which are manageable
  • PLF for plants is just at 42-43%.
  • Situation can only improve if coal is made available at viable prices and PPA’s go up
  • Expecting production nos. of 9 mn plus in next year between Oman (2mn) and India (7mn)
  • Capex requirement in next year should be around 400-500 crores max
  • Current net debt is at 42000 crores, expecting to come down by 4000 crores in this FY purely by Ebitda generation
  • Spread between RM basket and finished products have gone up by 42-43% in last FY, resulting in ebitda per tonne in this quarter at 12800 rs vs 9800 rs
  • Not expecting 12800 rs margin to grow substantially higher, but we can maintain such margins next year

Full Interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8zrKPE7xZQ

 

MAS Financial – Kamlesh Gandhi, MD

  • We target to have 5200-5300 crores of AUM by FY19 including housing porfolio
  • 80-85% will come from MSME and SME and Rest from 2 wheeler, commercial and housing.
  • As long as we maintain the AUM quality we expect to grow in range of 25-30%
  • GNPA going forward will stay in range of 1-1.3% and NNPA will hover around 1%
  • NIM will be 7.7-7.% vs 8% last year as there is some pressure in interest rates
  • Grew housing business at 15-16% last year , looking forward to grow more 1000 crores from current levels in 3 years
  • Rural housing NPA is around 0.27% vs 0.36% last year

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biU8J8mnzLY

 

Welspun Enterprises – Sandeep Garg , MD

  • Results are good because Delhi Meerut project which was scheduled for 30 months is getting completed in 16 months which led to faster turnover recognition
  • Order book stands at 5500 crores including L1 of 2000 crores; current backlog at 3000 odd crores
  • We expect to book 7000 crores in this year, last year we booked 4000 crores
  • Order backlog at the end of the year to be around 8000-8500 crores
  • Revenue growth should double up every year for next 2 years, profit growth should also continue
  • Ebitda margins are at 15%, expect similar numbers in next year
  • In infra projects, profit margins are at 11-12%, expect to continue in same range going forward
  • Debt is majority at SPV level in Delhi Meerut project, parent company is debt free
  • As the order book will grow, 50% of order will be through debt in various SPV’s which we operate

Full Interview :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_pPUPszZSE